JANE'S SNOW FORECAST DISCUSSION
ISSUED: FRIDAY 21ST JULY, 9:15AM
A high has moved in to produce sunshine and light winds for Friday. The high moves to the east on Saturday, letting the wind strengthen again later in the day. There is also the chance of snow showers on Saturday night as the next system approaches.
A cold front cuts through the high later on Sunday, then the high quickly comes back in on Monday, but we should see 5 to 10 cm snow on Sunday into Monday.
The next bigger system is not far away. A low crosses Tasmania later Tuesday, then a strong front crosses the alps on Wednesday. We'll see 20 to 30 cm of snow from Tuesday to Wednesday, most of it falling on Wednesday.
The next high brings light winds and sunshine on Thursday, then a weak front clips the alps next Friday, with a few centimetres of snow.
Friday - Dry and sunny with light winds.
Saturday - A dry day with moderate winds. Becoming windy at night with the chance of snow showers.
Sunday - Snow developing. Strong winds, moderating later.
Monday - Snow showers, increasing in the afternoon. Moderate winds.
Tuesday - Snow showers, tending to persistent snow later in the day. Moderate winds becoming strong.
AUTOMATIC SNOW FORECASTS
3 day forecast ranges from to
WHAT IS THIS DATA?
Days one to three are OCF data, remaining days are ECMWF data.
The elevation relates to the current conditions and the 3 day snow forecast. The most recent cam is from some part of the resort.
The current temperature is updated every 10 minutes from the nearest or most suitable official Automatic Weather Station.
The precip is the precipitation into the gauge since the reset at 9am. This value is updated every 10 minutes from the nearest or most suitable official Automatic Weather Station.
The forecast data is automatically calculated from numerical weather model output:
Days 1 to 3:
- snow = 0C or less
- mix = 0C to 1C
- rain = 1C or more
Days 1 to 8:
- snow = any precipitation of 1C or less
The short term data is driven by OCF = Operational Consensus Forecast, a product by BoM. A weighted average of all the different weather models. If one model has done particularly well lately, then it has more influence; a poor model, less influence.
OCF data is only calculated for locations with an official Automatic Weather Station. The forecast for Selwyn is from Cabramurra (1500m). ECMWF data will be provided for the remaining resorts.
The daily totals are for the next three days, as per the duration guide. This data is updated four times per day (around 1am/pm, 6am/pm). ECMWF data is updated around 6:15am/pm.
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