JANE'S SNOW FORECAST DISCUSSION
ISSUED: THURSDAY 21ST SEPTEMBER, 8:45AM
A high will sit to our east until Saturday producing warm and generally dry weather.
A trough slides through tonight. Thunderstorms are likely to develop over parts of Victoria, and there is a chance these could move over the alps in the late afternoon or evening. Otherwise its dry with a breezy to strong northerly wind.
We're dry on Friday, warm and generally sunny with fairly light winds.
A strong front arrives later on Saturday. Its dry for most of the day with a strong northerly wind (likely to reach lift wind hold). There is the chance of showers in the afternoon and evening but most will stay dry.
The air is marginally cool on Sunday with persistent precipitation in a westerly wind - falling as snow above 1700/1800 metres and rain below. It cools further and we change to snow for Monday (above 1400 metres, 1200 metres in southern VIC). Expect 20 to 30 cm above 1800 metres, and around 10 cm for the lower slopes.
Its turns dry early on Tuesday as the next high moves through. We're warm again on Wednesday, and dry through the day.
A cold front will fall across the southeast next Thursday, with a feed of tropical moisture. The snow level looks to be between 2000 and 2200 metres, so it is all rain below that (with 25 to 40 mm).
This should leave us in a marginally cool enough westerly for Friday and Saturday. Showers passing through, falling as snow above about 1600 metres.
Thursday - Generally dry. The chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. Breezy to strong NW winds.
Friday - Lovely. Light winds for most of the day, dry with lots of sunshine.
Saturday - Warm and very windy. The chance of showers in the afternoon and evening but generally dry.
Sunday - Persistent precipitation, falling as snow above 1800 metres lowering to 1700 metres at times. Breezy to strong winds.
Monday - Persistent snow above 1400 metres (1200 metres in southern Victoria). Moderate to breezy winds.
AUTOMATIC SNOW FORECASTS
3 day forecast ranges from to
WHAT IS THIS DATA?
Days one to three are OCF data, remaining days are ECMWF data.
The elevation relates to the current conditions and the 3 day snow forecast. The most recent cam is from some part of the resort.
The current temperature is updated every 10 minutes from the nearest or most suitable official Automatic Weather Station.
The precip is the precipitation into the gauge since the reset at 9am. This value is updated every 10 minutes from the nearest or most suitable official Automatic Weather Station.
The forecast data is automatically calculated from numerical weather model output:
Days 1 to 3:
- snow = 0C or less
- mix = 0C to 1C
- rain = 1C or more
Days 1 to 8:
- snow = any precipitation of 1C or less
The short term data is driven by OCF = Operational Consensus Forecast, a product by BoM. A weighted average of all the different weather models. If one model has done particularly well lately, then it has more influence; a poor model, less influence.
OCF data is only calculated for locations with an official Automatic Weather Station. The forecast for Selwyn is from Cabramurra (1500m). ECMWF data will be provided for the remaining resorts.
The daily totals are for the next three days, as per the duration guide. This data is updated four times per day (around 1am/pm, 6am/pm). ECMWF data is updated around 6:15am/pm.
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