JANE'S SNOW FORECAST DISCUSSION
A high will sit to our east until Saturday producing warm and generally dry weather.
A trough slides through tonight. Thunderstorms are likely to develop over parts of Victoria, and there is a chance these could move over the alps in the late afternoon or evening. Otherwise its dry with a breezy to strong northerly wind.
We're dry on Friday, warm and generally sunny with fairly light winds.
A strong front arrives later on Saturday. Its dry for most of the day with a strong northerly wind (likely to reach lift wind hold). There is the chance of showers in the afternoon and evening but most will stay dry.
The air is marginally cool on Sunday with persistent precipitation in a westerly wind - falling as snow above 1700/1800 metres and rain below. It cools further and we change to snow for Monday (above 1400 metres, 1200 metres in southern VIC). Expect 20 to 30 cm above 1800 metres, and around 10 cm for the lower slopes.
Its turns dry early on Tuesday as the next high moves through. We're warm again on Wednesday, and dry through the day.
A cold front will fall across the southeast next Thursday, with a feed of tropical moisture. The snow level looks to be between 2000 and 2200 metres, so it is all rain below that (with 25 to 40 mm).
This should leave us in a marginally cool enough westerly for Friday and Saturday. Showers passing through, falling as snow above about 1600 metres.
Thursday - Generally dry. The chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. Breezy to strong NW winds.
Friday - Lovely. Light winds for most of the day, dry with lots of sunshine.
Saturday - Warm and very windy. The chance of showers in the afternoon and evening but generally dry.
Sunday - Persistent precipitation, falling as snow above 1800 metres lowering to 1700 metres at times. Breezy to strong winds.
Monday - Persistent snow above 1400 metres (1200 metres in southern Victoria). Moderate to breezy winds.
2017 SNOW SEASON OUTLOOK
ISSUED: MONDAY MAY 29 2017
My summary of what could influence this years snow season, discussing the main drivers of our weather systems, and how much or little of these variables we may see this year.
Every weather system that pushes across the alps and brings us snow has three main variables: moisture, energy and temperature. Let's see how these look this year.