JANE'S SNOW FORECAST DISCUSSION
ISSUED: TUESDAY 22ND AUGUST, 8:20AM
We're dry today and warming in the sunshine under a high.
The next cold front arrives on Wednesday with a trough to follow on Thursday. This system comes in strong, meets up with a weak feed of tropical moisture, and brings lots of cold air - but will be limited by the high to our northwest. Expect 2 to 10 cm of snow on Wednesday and Thursday. It starts around 1600 metres, and lowers to 1000 metres.
Friday should be dry with a high overhead.
The high remains for the weekend, limiting what a cold front can do - just a clip from this one. Up to 2 cm of snow, mainly over southern resorts.
The ridge of high pressure remains to start next week, making another front just clip us next Tuesday.
The high properly moves in mid next week.
Tuesday - Dry with lots of sunshine. Light winds.
Wednesday - Snow developing, spreading from west to east, lowering to 1200 metres. Light to moderate winds.
Thursday - Snow showers, down to 1000 metres. Light to moderate winds.
Friday - Dry with lots of sunshine. Light winds.
Saturday - Generally dry. Snow showers developing over southern resorts, above 1500 metres. Light to moderate winds.
AUTOMATIC SNOW FORECASTS
3 day forecast ranges from to
WHAT IS THIS DATA?
Days one to three are OCF data, remaining days are ECMWF data.
The elevation relates to the current conditions and the 3 day snow forecast. The most recent cam is from some part of the resort.
The current temperature is updated every 10 minutes from the nearest or most suitable official Automatic Weather Station.
The precip is the precipitation into the gauge since the reset at 9am. This value is updated every 10 minutes from the nearest or most suitable official Automatic Weather Station.
The forecast data is automatically calculated from numerical weather model output:
Days 1 to 3:
- snow = 0C or less
- mix = 0C to 1C
- rain = 1C or more
Days 1 to 8:
- snow = any precipitation of 1C or less
The short term data is driven by OCF = Operational Consensus Forecast, a product by BoM. A weighted average of all the different weather models. If one model has done particularly well lately, then it has more influence; a poor model, less influence.
OCF data is only calculated for locations with an official Automatic Weather Station. The forecast for Selwyn is from Cabramurra (1500m). ECMWF data will be provided for the remaining resorts.
The daily totals are for the next three days, as per the duration guide. This data is updated four times per day (around 1am/pm, 6am/pm). ECMWF data is updated around 6:15am/pm.
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