JANE'S SNOW FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

ISSUED: THURSDAY 29TH JUNE, 8:30AM

A trough affects southern resorts this morning, ahead of a cold front crossing the alps late afternoon and this evening. The next high quickly moves in, so its a light amount of snow, down to 1000 metres at the coldest part (900 metres in southern Gippsland, 200 metres in southern Tasmania).

The high takes over on Friday morning, moves overhead for Saturday, and to our east on Sunday. So its dry and sunny across the weekend, with light winds for most of it.

A bigger system moves through next week, with snow due each and every day.

This has a slow-moving cut-off low, allowing several fronts to pass through, and a small feed of tropical moisture left over from this week's inland rain. It puts us in a generally westerly airflow for a long time - great for accumulating snow at the major resorts. Mt Baw Baw may miss out, in a shadow with this direction.

It will start warm though. Any precipitation during the day on Monday should fall as rain, before the cold air catches up on Monday night - then the cold air stays with us for the rest of the week. 

janesweather snow forecast

Thursday - Snow over western resorts, spreading to far eastern resorts this evening, starting at 1300 metres and lowering to 1000 metres at night. 

Friday - Snow for southern slopes early, otherwise its dry with increasing sunshine. 

Saturday - Dry and sunny with light winds. 

Sunday - Dry and sunny with light winds. Northerly wind strengthening later. 

Monday - Rain developing, falling as snow on the very highest peaks, then snow lowering throughout at night, from west to east.

MODEL SNOW FORECASTS

W3.CSS

(OCF data) Updated at: . (Due: 1am | 6am | 1pm | 6pm)

(OCF plus EC data) EC Updated around: 6:15am | 6:15pm

Hotham Snow Cam

MT HOTHAM (1850 metres)

Current - Temp: °C | Precip: mm

3 days - Snow: cm | Mix: mm | Rain: mm 

8 day forecast - Snow: cm

Falls Creek Snow Cam

FALLS CREEK (1750 metres)

Current - Temp: °C | Precip: mm

3 days - Snow: cm | Mix: mm | Rain: mm 

8 day forecast - Snow: cm

Thredbo Snow Cam

THREDBO (1950 metres)

Current - Temp: °C | Precip: mm

3 days - Snow: cm | Mix: mm | Rain: mm 

8 day forecast - Snow: cm

Mt Baw Baw Snow Cam

MT BAW BAW (1550 metres)

Current - Temp: °C | Precip: mm

3 days - Snow: cm | Mix: mm | Rain: mm 

8 day forecast - Snow: cm

Mt Stirling Snow Cam

MT STIRLING

No Current Conditons

Forecast Coming Soon

Mt Mawson Snow Cam

MT MAWSON

No Current Conditions

Forecast Coming Soon

Mt Buller Snow Cam

MT BULLER (1700 metres)

Current - Temp: °C | Precip: mm

3 days - Snow: cm | Mix: mm | Rain: mm 

8 day forecast - Snow: cm

Perisher Snow Cam

PERISHER (1750 metres)

Current - Temp: °C | Precip: mm

3 days - Snow: cm | Mix: mm | Rain: mm 

8 day forecast - Snow: cm

Charlotte Pass Snow Cam

CHARLOTTE PASS

No Current Conditons

Forecast:

Coming Soon

Selwyn Snow Cam

SELWYN (1500 metres)

Current - Temp: °C | Precip: mm

3 days - Snow: cm | Mix: mm | Rain: mm 

8 day forecast - Snow: cm

Lake Mountain Snow Cam

LAKE MOUNTAIN

No Current Conditons

Forecast Coming Soon

Ben Lomond Snow Cam

BEN LOMOND

No Current Conditions

Forecast Coming Soon


WHAT IS THIS DATA?

Days one to three are OCF data, ranging from to . Remaining days are ECMWF data.

The elevation relates to the current conditions and the snow forecast. The most recent cam is from some part of the resort.

The current temperature is updated every 10 minutes from the nearest or most suitable official Automatic Weather Station.

The precip is the precipitation into the gauge since the reset at 9am. This value is updated every 10 minutes from the nearest or most suitable official Automatic Weather Station.

The forecast data is automatically calculated from numerical weather model output:

Days 1 to 3:

  • snow = 0C or less
  • mix = 0C to 1C
  • rain = 1C or more

Days 1 to 8:

  • snow = any precipitation of 1C or less

The short term data is driven by OCF = Operational Consensus Forecast, a product by BoM. A weighted average of all the different weather models. If one model has done particularly well lately, then it has more influence; a poor model, less influence. 

OCF data is only calculated for locations with an official Automatic Weather Station. The forecast for Selwyn is from Cabramurra (1500m). ECMWF data will be provided for the remaining resorts.

The daily totals are for the next three days, as per the duration guide. This data is updated four times per day (around 1am/pm, 6am/pm). ECMWF data is updated around 6:15am/pm.

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