Long term forecasts can tell us if it will be wetter or drier (compared to the average) in the months ahead.
To do this we look at the Pacific and Indian Ocean's. If they are 'neutral' it is not clear cut. But if they cross a positive or negative threshold, then that can indicate whether rain will be pushed to Australia, or away from Australia - if its more likely to be wet or dry.
Here is a selection of indicators and forecasts for what these oceans are likely to do in the months ahead.
Next update is due on May 24th.
MY SEASONAL FORECAST FROM RURAL BANK AG ANSWERS
I'm pleased to partner with Rural Bank to provide Ag Answers weather updates. This video is for Victoria. Other states are available at the Rural Bank website. Updated monthly, around the 25th.
The latest forecast from the Weather Bureau for rain in the next month.
Green and blue indicates higher odds for above average rain.
Orange and brown indicated higher odds for below average rain.
RECENT RAINFALL AND THE STATE OF THE OCEANS
Last month's rain, as a percentage of the average:
Last 3 month's rain, as a percentage of the average:
The current month's rain so far, as a percentage of the average:
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (how much warmer or cooler than average):
SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). Its the difference in pressure from the central Pacific to Australia.
Above +7 indicates there is more rain in Darwin, below -7 indicates there is more rain in Tahiti:
Looking under the Pacific Ocean surface (Australia on the left, South America on the right). What is feeding the anomaly at the top - cool blues or warm reds. Can indicate upcoming changes at the surface:
The Weather Bureau's model forecast for the Pacific Ocean.
Values in the red area indicate El Nino - the Pacific Ocean won't help it rain here.
Values in the blue area indicate La Nina - the Pacific Ocean will encourage rain here.
The Weather Bureau's model forecast for the Indian Ocean.
Values in the red area indicate a 'positive IOD' - the Indian Ocean won't help it rain here.
Values in the blue area indicate 'negative IOD' - the Indian Ocean will encourage rain here.
(IOD is the Indian Ocean Dipole - the Indian Ocean equivalent of La Nina or El Nino)