Updated: Thursday 18 May 7:30am - with the latest guidance from this morning's model runs.
Its shaping up to be very wet in the triangle from Swan Hill to Bendigo to Horsham.
This weather system will peak on Friday into early Saturday and its coming down from the north, so areas north of the ranges will see the most (the ranges limit what can move across into the south).
Here's this morning's guidance from a selection of the different weather models - and my analysis of them.
For detailed numbers for your nearest 'main' location see Latest Guidance.
And, the weighted average of all the weather models:
So, I still like the bigger totals (20 to 50 mm) for much of northern Victoria - except for those areas outlined above. But I really wouldn't expect more than 5 to 10 mm in the south (possibly 20 mm locally in southwest VIC). The majority of Gippsland should see less than 5 mm from this one.