My thoughts on snow for the next week
Updating my thoughts on snow, now that the first system is well underway.
Still note: Our weather shifted on Monday as a cold front pushed through, followed by a trough with a cold surge. This pushed far enough north to change the atmosphere over New South Wales and far southern Queensland. Further weather systems over the next week will reinforce this situation, and push the cooler air further up into southern Queensland.
So, our northerly winds won't bring us as much warmth anymore, as the heat to our north is being reduced.
Thursday's update: A large front is passing through, and a weak cut-off low will form off Gippsland in the afternoon. This system had a good feed of tropical moisture, but the cold core remains back to our west until the very end. But, as I highlighted above, much of the warmth in our atmosphere has been eroded, and this should continue to fall as a wet snow/rain mix down to around 1400 metres today - with the potential for lots of it. Then it rapidly turns properly cold, and lowers through remaining alpine elevations, late afternoon/at night (when the system is drying up, but with the southerly push wrapping around the low).
Friday, Saturday and Sunday have no problem with temperature, it will be cold enough for snow throughout alpine elevations through each of these days. We're left with snow showers on Friday as the off Gippsland low moves away - but a new low centre moves in from the west late in the day (which has a great tropical moisture feed). So, it has great bones, and Saturday is when the big falls would occur - but I don't think the low will come near enough to the alps for that.