After a third of Victoria experienced their wettest September on record, with some parts of the northwest recording as much as four times the average rainfall, we've finally lost our connection to the tropics, for now.
The huge rainfalls come from a break in the high pressure, letting moist air travel down to us, turned into rain by low pressure. And the moisture comes from the warmer than average tropical waters near Australia, a feature of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
High pressure should block this moisture for the next week. Low pressure will still move through (later today, later Friday, and late Sunday into next week), but the rain that falls will not be as heavy as it has been.
But the negative IOD is still going strong, so once that connection can be re-established, and the moisture meets up with low pressure, big rains will return. But, the next week should be somewhat of a reprieve.