Talk of a month's worth of rain on the way - but its only for some parts north of the ranges

Updated: Thursday 18 May 7:30am - with the latest guidance from this morning's model runs.

Its shaping up to be very wet in the triangle from Swan Hill to Bendigo to Horsham.

This weather system will peak on Friday into early Saturday and its coming down from the north, so areas north of the ranges will see the most (the ranges limit what can move across into the south).

Here's this morning's guidance from a selection of the different weather models - and my analysis of them.

For detailed numbers for your nearest 'main' location see Latest Guidance.

The EC model The biggest falls should be between Swan Hill, Bendigo and Horsham, with 30 to more than 50 mm. A growing signal in recent runs, of just light falls for Mildura, and moderate falls for the corridor between Deniliquin and Shepparton, before heavier falls further east. I'm still not liking the heavier falls shown in that part of the southwest, but they are possible. Up to 10 mm for Melbourne and Gippsland.

The EC model

The biggest falls should be between Swan Hill, Bendigo and Horsham, with 30 to more than 50 mm. A growing signal in recent runs, of just light falls for Mildura, and moderate falls for the corridor between Deniliquin and Shepparton, before heavier falls further east. I'm still not liking the heavier falls shown in that part of the southwest, but they are possible.

Up to 10 mm for Melbourne and Gippsland.

The US or GFS model Les than 10 mm across southern Victoria seems reasonable - the few higher spots are unlikely (particularly around Sale). Some agreement with ECMWF for only moderate falls in the Deniliquin - Shepparton corridor, and less for Mildura.

The US or GFS model

Les than 10 mm across southern Victoria seems reasonable - the few higher spots are unlikely (particularly around Sale). Some agreement with ECMWF for only moderate falls in the Deniliquin - Shepparton corridor, and less for Mildura.

The ACCESS model Agreement with the lighter signal for Mildura and the Deniliquin-Shepparton corridor, while 20 to 50+ mm across remaining areas north of the ranges. Some sign of higher falls in southwest, in agreement with ECMWF. Light falls across Melbourne and Gippsland.

The ACCESS model

Agreement with the lighter signal for Mildura and the Deniliquin-Shepparton corridor, while 20 to 50+ mm across remaining areas north of the ranges. Some sign of higher falls in southwest, in agreement with ECMWF. Light falls across Melbourne and Gippsland.

And, the weighted average of all the weather models:

All model summary Big totals confined to areas north of the ranges, with those lighter signals in the same spots. Chance of heavier over southwest, lighter for Melbourne and Gippsland.

All model summary

Big totals confined to areas north of the ranges, with those lighter signals in the same spots. Chance of heavier over southwest, lighter for Melbourne and Gippsland.

So, I still like the bigger totals (20 to 50 mm) for much of northern Victoria - except for those areas outlined above. But I really wouldn't expect more than 5 to 10 mm in the south (possibly 20 mm locally in southwest VIC). The majority of Gippsland should see less than 5 mm from this one.