Very dry in June, a bit better in July, and quite good in August - except for East Gippsland.
If we don't rise above 9.6C by 9am Friday, then today will be the coldest August day since 1970. Our top (so far) was just 9.0C.
It was thanks to thick cloud trapping the chill, and that's just the first of three weather systems - that will drop a lot of snow on the alps, and some much needed rain in parts of Victoria.
Updated: Thursday 18 May 7:30am - with the latest guidance from this morning's model runs.
Its shaping up to be very wet in the triangle from Swan Hill to Bendigo to Horsham.
This weather system will peak on Friday into early Saturday and its coming down from the north, so areas north of the ranges will see the most (the ranges limit what can move across into the south).
Here's this morning's guidance from a selection of the different weather models - and my analysis of them.
For detailed numbers for your nearest 'main' location see Latest Guidance.
And, the weighted average of all the weather models:
So, I still like the bigger totals (20 to 50 mm) for much of northern Victoria - except for those areas outlined above. But I really wouldn't expect more than 5 to 10 mm in the south (possibly 20 mm locally in southwest VIC). The majority of Gippsland should see less than 5 mm from this one.
We recorded 107mm in Melbourne so far this April (to 9am this morning). The average is 57mm.
The odds for April were:
This may explain what has happened, somewhat:
For more see my latest seasonal outlook (prepared April 18th).